The GOP “Death List,” SSP-Style

Markos has gotten his hands on the so-called GOP “Death List”. All it really is is a list of race ratings, but the “Washington Whispers” blog hyped it well by highlighting the most pessimistic Republican assessments.

As it happens, the five-tier heirarchy used in this list maps perfectly on to the same rating system we use here at SSP. This is what it would look like if you took the GOP chart (available in full below the fold) and whipped it up SSP-style:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (Open)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-24 (Feeney)
IL-11 (Open)
IL-14 (Foster)
IN-09 (Hill)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
MI-07 (Walberg)
NJ-03 (Open)
NJ-07 (Open)
NY-13 (Open)
NY-25 (Open)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
PA-04 (Altmire)
VA-11 (Open)		 AZ-05 (Mitchell)
CA-04 (Open)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
GA-08 (Marshall)
KS-02 (Boyda)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
MD-01 (Open)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MS-01 (Childers)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NM-01 (Open)
OH-16 (Open)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
WI-08 (Kagen)		 AL-02 (Open)
AL-05 (Open)
CT-04 (Shays)
IL-10 (Kirk)
LA-04 (Open)
MN-03 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-09 (Open)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NM-02 (Open)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-26 (Open)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-15 (Open)
PA-03 (English)
PA-10 (Carney)
TX-22 (Lampson)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (Open)		 AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, L.)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, M.)
ID-01 (Sali)
IL-06 (Roskam)
KY-02 (Open)
NE-02 (Terry)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NV-02 (Heller)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)		 FL-15 (Open)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
IL-18 (Open)
OH-07 (Open)
PA-18 (Murphy)
TX-07 (Culberson)
VA-10 (Wolf)
6 D, 11 R
8 D, 7 R
4 D, 16 R
16 R
1 D, 6 R

I don’t have to run down all my disagreements with the list – that’s what this is for. But I will make one observation: The GOP is light – they are missing a lot of races. SSP has over 100 races on our House list – this one has just 75. Now, most of our additional races are fairly marginal, but by no means all of them. And in an election like this, you ignore races at your peril.

I’m glad to see the GOP acting so carelessly.

P.S. There’s also a Senate chart, which you can check out on the last page of the document.

13 thoughts on “The GOP “Death List,” SSP-Style”

  2. That Senate chart is funny as hell, I mean do these clowns really think that Sununu has a shot in hell at keeping his seat? And I’m also pretty surprised to see that they think MS-B is a toss-up, I’d still consider it to be Leaning Republican (although only just barely).

  4. Carney’s still in a toss-up while Kanjorski’s district “leans Dem”?  Tim Walberg and Randy Kuhl’s races are “likely Dem”?  Uber-conservative CA-04 leans Dem?  A very interesting list to say the least….

  5. Politico currently has an article about this up, and it quotes a high-ranking GOP operative who says the list might be underestimating GOP losses:

    One well-connected Republican operative told Politico that the list, if anything, understated the number of members needing a political lifeline. The operative also said the GOP is all but writing off the seats of Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.), Joseph Knollenberg (R-Mich.), Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Phil English (R-Pa.), and the open New Mexico House seat of retiring Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), who is running for the Senate.

    In addition, the operative suggested that the seats of Reps. Bill Sali (R-Idaho), Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), Thelma Drake (R-Va.), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and the open Kentucky seat of retiring Rep. Ron Lewis (R-Ky.) were in far more tenuous situation than the document shows.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

  7. How many Larry Kissells will we have two weeks from now? (That is, narrow losses in races where there were no significant independent expenditures.)

    At least five or ten, in my opinion.

  8. Republican candidates on the Death List with less cash on hand than the RNC spent to assessorize Caribou Barbie (aka Bible Spice):

    Hay (AZ-01)

    Straniere (NY-13)

    Sweetland (NY-25)

    Schuring (OH-16)

    McClintock (CA-04)

    Luetkemeyer (MO-09)

    Schweikert (AZ-05)

    Erickson (OR-05)

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